UMAKYAT ang year-on-year (YOY) inflation sa 1.5% noong Agosto. Anu-ano ang mga dahilan sa pag-akyat na ito? Mauudlot ba ang plano ng Bangko Sentral na pababain ang interest rates sa mga susunod na buwan?
Umakyat ang YOY inflation sa 1.5% pagkatapos nitong maabot noong Hulyo ang pinakamababang antas ng inflation sa loob ng halos anim na taon. Ngunit nanatili ang year-to-date (YTD) na average inflation sa 1.66%, mas mababa pa rin sa 2-4% na projection para sa buong taon. (Table 1).
Limang sunud-sunod na bagyo na sumira sa mga pananim at mga livestock farms at nagpatigil sa pangingisda ang naging mitsa sa muling pag-akyat ng presyo ng maraming produkto at serbisyo noong Agosto.
Pinakamalaking pag-akyat ang naitala ng pagkain na lumipad sa 0.9% mula sa negatibong antas na -0.2% noong Hulyo.
Umakyat ang presyo ng gulay ng 10.0%, isda ng 9.5%, oils at fats ng 8.9%, karne ng 7.1%, isda ng 6.3%, fruits at nuts ng 5.2%, at gatas at itlog ng 3.8%. Kahit na bumaba ang presyo ng bigas ng -17.0% at mais ng -11.8%, at matatag at mababa ang inflation ng ready-made food (2.3%), tinapay, (1.5%) at asukal (0.1%), hindi nito nabaligtad ang pataas na trend.
Lumobo ang YOY inflation ng non-food items ng 1.8% mula sa 1.4% kahit na bumaba ng YOY inflation ng clothing and footwear (1.7%); furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (1.0%); recreation, sports and culture (2.1%); at education services (2.9%). Malakas ang sipa ng health expenditures (2.9% mula sa -2.0%); at personal care and miscellaneous services (2.5% mula sa 2.3%). Sa kabilang dako, di natinag sa antas nila noong nakaraang buwan ang alcoholic beverages at tobacco (4.2%); housing, water, electricity and other fuels (2.1%); restaurants and accommodation services (2.3%); at financial services (0.0%).
Dumoble naman ang month-on-month (MOM) inflation sa 0.6% mula sa 0.3% noong Hulyo. Umakyat ang pagkain ng 0.6% mula sa 0.1%; at non-food sa 0.5% mula sa 0.2%.
Base sa MOM inflation, lumipad ng 15.8% ang presyo ng gulay. Ganoon din ang isda na umakyat ng 2.8%. Kasama sa mga umangat nang malakihan ang oils and fats (0.9%); karne (0.7%); gatas at itlog (0.5%); non-alcoholic beverages (0.4%), ready-made food (0.4%); at mais (0.3%). Banayad naman ang pag-akyat ng arina, tinapay, at pasta (0.2%) at ang asukal ay di gumalaw (0.9%)
Sa non-food category naman, umakyat ang MOM inflation ng housing, water, electricity, gas at fuels (0.7%); health (0.4%); education (0.4%); furnishings, household equipment at maintenance (0.3%); recreation, culture at sports (0.3%); at personal care at miscellaneous goods (0.3%). Banayad naman ang alcoholic beverages at tobacco (0.2%); clothing at footwear (0.2%); transport (0.2%); restaurants at accommodation services (0.2%); information at communication (0.1%) at ang di gumagalaw na financial services (0.0%).
Tumaas ang core inflation ng tatlong beses sa YOY inflation na 2.7% at doble ang akyat ng MOM inflation na 0.5%. Dahil ang naitalang 1.5% na YOY inflation ay mas mababa pa rin kaysa sa lower end ng target inflation range na 2-4% at ang policy interest rate ay mataas pa rin sa antas nitong 5%, inaasahang hindi problema ang pagpapaluwag ng antas ng liquidity sa mga susunod na buwan. Kailangan ito para lumapit ang ekonomiya sa higher-end ng growth target na 6.5% sa 2025.
| Table 1. CONSUMER PRICES | YEAR-ON-YEAR (YOY) | MONTH-ON-MONTH (MOM) | |||||||
| June | July | August | June | July | August | ||||
| ALL ITEMS | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||
| FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.2 | |||
| NON-FOOD ITEMS | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||
| Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco |
3.8 |
4.2 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |||
| Clothing and Footwear |
1.7 |
1.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||
| Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels |
3.2 |
2.1 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||
| Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance | - Advertisement -
2.1 |
2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||
| Health | 2.4 | -2.0 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |||
| Transport | -1.6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||
| Information and Communication | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||
| Recreation, Sports and Culture | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| Education Services | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 1..4 | 0.4 | |||
| Restaurants and Accommodation Services | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |||
| Financial Services | – | – | – | – | – | – | |||
| Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| CORE ITEMS | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||
| FOOD | 0.1 | -0.5 |
1.1 |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | |||
| Rice | -14.3 | -15.9 | -17.0 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -1.8 | |||
| Corn | -14.5 | -15.3 | -11.8 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 0.3 | |||
| Flour, Bread and Pasta Products | 1.3 | 2.1 |
1.5 |
0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |||
| Meat | 9.1 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | -1.9 | |||
| Fish | 6.2 | 2.6 | 9.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 2.8 | |||
| Milk and Eggs | 5.1 | -2.0 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||
| Oils and Fats | 7.1 | 0.5 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |||
| Fruits and Nuts | 9.7 | 2.2 | 5.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | |||
| Vegetables | -2.8 | 4.3 | 10.0 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 15.8 | |||
| Sugar | -0.7 | 2.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Ready-Made Food and Other Food Products | 2.2 | 0.0 |
2.3 |
0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||
| Non-alcoholic Beverages | 3.7 | 2.3 |
4.2 |
0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | |||
| Source: Philippine Statistics Authority | |||||||||